Indian economy likely to record at 9.2% growth in 2021-22

The estimate given by the NSO in its first advance forecast compares with 9.5 percent expansion the RBI had projected last month

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, India’s GDP is expected to grow by 9.2% in fiscal year 22. The expansion of the Indian economy, according to the first estimate anticipated by the GDP for 202122 from the Ministry of Statistics released Jan. 7. , is below the forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank reiterated its forecast for 9.5% GDP growth for fiscal year 22 last month. While the estimated 9.2% GDP growth rate for FY22 is the highest in at least 17 years, it has been helped by an extremely favorable base effect, with GDP contracting a record high. 7.3% in FY21 due to the COVID19 pandemic.

According to the first anticipated estimate, which is based on the data available for the first two or three quarters of the financial year, the growth in gross value added for the financial year 22 was set at 8.6%.GDP grew by 17.6% in FY22 in nominal terms. With India’s GDP growing 13.7% in April to September 2021, the first early estimate suggests that GDP will grow 5.6% in the second half of FY 2222. The RBI forecast last month said that India’s GDP would grow 6.6% in October. -December 2021 and 6% in January-March 2022. Commenting on the anticipated GDP estimates revealed by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said: “The advance estimates growth in real GDP and GVA as well as the expansion of nominal GDP are broadly in line with our expectations (9.0%, 8.8% and 17.5 percent, respectively).

“The implied 5.6% GDP growth for the second half of FY2022 completed by NSO may not fully reflect the evolutionary impact of Omicron. Our feeling is that after an increase of 6.06 , 5% in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, GDP expansion is expected to slide below Brickwork Ratings also said that the forecast GDP estimates for fiscal 22 released by the Department of Statistics and Implementation of (MOSPI) programs are more optimistic at 9.2%, given bottlenecks, coal, energy and semiconductor shortages, and the threat of the third wave of the pandemic. figures based on the current six to eight month track record, “the credit rating agency said. He added,” The estimates serve as critical data for the next fiscal year to the next fiscal year.An increase in nominal GDP to 17.6% provides additional spending room for the government. According to nominal GDP estimates, the budget deficit forecast for year 22 is 6.5% of GDP. Despite the shortage of divestment products and the additional demand for additional grants, the budget deficit target of 6.8% of GDP is expected to be reached in year 22. The 17.6% increase in GDP from Nominal GDP also translates into a substantial drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is the objective of FRBM.

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